What if Labour Can’t Win? Would pre-Election pacts be the answer?

[NB – The data and analysis presented at the end of this post are preliminary, although I am reasonably confident they are about right. I am double checking them myself and with colleagues].

[NB: I have now slightly updated these figures, but the overall picture hasn’t changed much. I have also added the list of seats that would have been vulnerable to a tactical exercise of this sort in a document. Should make interesting reading for the 43 Tory MPs named!]

The entire Labour Party leadership debate is being framed by the question “how can Labour win again?” But what if it can’t?

There are several reasons for believing it might be impossible for Labour to win an outright majority in the House of Commons again, at least for any foreseeable future whoever the elect as their next Leader. And if so, would the alternative be to form electoral pacts before the next General Election? What can the 2015 Election results tell us about what might happen if they did this? Continue reading

43 and 36 – Locking in the Smaller State: George Osborne’s ‘Summer Budget’

The general consensus is this is a “big” Budget with lots in it. It is, but unfortunately most commentators are missing the really big picture.

To be able to grasp what lies behind George Osborne’s ‘Summer Budget’ 2015 you need to remember just two numbers: 43 and 36.

Continue reading